Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Oman
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Bahrain
  • Kuwait
  • Saudi Arabia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Singapore
  • Kazakhstan
  • Uzbekistan
  • Tajikistan

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $488,236$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{529,770.0}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 142.4)}}\) (asimptote \(529,770.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,888$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,315.6}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 169.2)}}\) (asimptote \(36,315.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61,048$ on 2020-10-08

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $394,566$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{490,989.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 179.4)}}\) (asimptote \(490,989.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,683$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,710.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 149.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,710.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61,068$ on 2020-10-08

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $285,336$ on 2020-10-08

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,864$ on 2020-10-08

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61,901$ on 2020-10-08

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,129$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,946.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 127.6)}}\) (asimptote \(93,946.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,009$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,083.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 137.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,083.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,389$ on 2020-10-08

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $48,342$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,241.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 121.4)}}\) (asimptote \(45,241.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,073$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,188.4}{1 + 10^{-0.722 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,188.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,312$ on 2020-10-08

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $74,422$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{78,635.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 156.2)}}\) (asimptote \(78,635.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $264$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{254.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 131.3)}}\) (asimptote \(254.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,747$ on 2020-10-08

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $109,441$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{110,423.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 141.7)}}\) (asimptote \(110,423.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $642$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{584.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 79.4)}}\) (asimptote \(584.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,485$ on 2020-10-08

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $338,132$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333,305.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.3)}}\) (asimptote \(333,305.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,972$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,003.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,003.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,391$ on 2020-10-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 99%
Kazakhstan recovered 91%
Saudi Arabia recovered 85%
Uzbekistan recovered 72%
Tajikistan recovered 42%
Bahrain recovered 32%
Bangladesh recovered 30%
Israel recovered 15%
India recovered 12%
Iraq recovered 3%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,849$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,065.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 117.6)}}\) (asimptote \(56,065.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $154$ on 2020-10-08

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,561$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,640.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,640.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,746$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,742.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 135.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,742.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,057$ on 2020-10-08

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $60,026$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{65,460.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 148.1)}}\) (asimptote \(65,460.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $496$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{544.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 135.2)}}\) (asimptote \(544.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,693$ on 2020-10-08

Tajikistan⮸

Population $9,537,645$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,097$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,299.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 49.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,299.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $78$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 26.0)}}\) (asimptote \(73.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,105$ on 2020-10-08